War-torn Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is conducting a staggered vote over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Christopher Smith
Christopher Smith

A former professional poker player turned betting analyst, Marcus specializes in statistical modeling and risk assessment for UK gambling markets.