A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
